USSR 1991

Page 264

Hashimoto Ryutaro turned his head and asked the interpreter beside him, but the other party just spread his hands helplessly, expressing that he didn't quite understand what the sentence meant.He whispered to the Prime Minister, "It may be Russian slang, but it basically means that if we decide one second later, they will have one more chance."

Hashimoto Ryutaro decided to take a step back to understand the Soviet Union's movements before considering whether to agree to this plan, "Let me think about it carefully, General Secretary Yanayev. After we have considered it, we will naturally ask Japan The mission in Moscow will reply to you."

Yanayev said, "Well, I also hope to get a reply from the Japanese Prime Minister as soon as possible. After all, there are many partners that the Soviet Union can cooperate with, but there are very few partners like Japanese companies."

Hashimoto Ryutaro took a deep breath, changed his tone, and said, "Well, Japan will provide an answer to the Soviet Union as soon as possible."

After hanging up the phone, Yanayev sighed deeply, thinking that the Japanese are indeed more difficult to fool than the Indians in terms of economy. If Yanayev, an old fairy like Modi, can make him willingly make a phone call Soviet Union for project cooperation.

But Yanayev still has the confidence to take down Ryutaro Hashimoto. After all, his means are not limited to this aspect, not to mention the advantage of attracting Japan, which is to divide the political influence of the United States in Japan.

The Soviet Union has regarded Japan as an important pawn in East Asia. If China, Japan and the Soviet Union can reach an agreement on certain issues, it will undoubtedly be a major blow to the United States.

"A 15.00% controlling stake sounds exciting, but it's just a vague concept. The Soviet Union still holds strong gold stocks, and wants this 15.00%. The infrastructure in the Far East has not yet been repaired. Japan wants If you earn it back, don’t you need to spend your own money to invest in this part? If you want to stop the loss, the Japanese government also has to consider the funds invested before. Maybe Hashimoto Ryutaro may be determined to continue gambling?” “Five billion is enough Do you really think the Soviet government is a fool for wanting to exchange for Japan's right to speak in the Far East?"

Thinking of this, Yanayev smiled with disdain, stretched his waist, and just looked up at the calendar.August NO.17.

Presumably the Chinese leaders are also actively preparing for another matter.Yanayev thought.

He looked at the clock on the wall, and the second hand jumped from 59 to one.

kindness?One second was missing.

Chapter 587 Meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs

It's not that Yanayev is not worried about Japan's economic situation. After all, he is the iron-clad Soviet general secretary and the Japanese prime minister's cabinet.In his impression, Ryutaro Hashimoto, the Prime Minister of Japan who formed the second cabinet in 1997, decided to increase the consumption tax from 3% to 5% in order to consolidate the fiscal situation.As a result, the Japanese economy fell into recession and Hashimoto stepped down.While part of the blame was the Asian financial crisis that erupted a few months later, a consumption tax hike also took a lot of the blame.

After Ryutaro Hashimoto steps down, Yanayev's previous efforts may be in vain, and everything must start with the new prime minister for a new round of negotiations.In fact, the new prime minister may not be easy to fool.

Yanayev cannot interfere in Japan's internal affairs, so he can only finalize the business in advance.Hashimoto Ryutaro is the key point.He was considering another member of Hashimoto Ryutaro's cabinet, Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi, who was on a state visit to Moscow.

Another reason why Yanayev took a fancy to Obuchi Keizo was that after Hashimoto Ryutaro's administrative reform failed, he succeeded Hashimoto Ryutaro as prime minister and formed the Obuchi cabinet in 1998.Facing the future Japanese prime minister, Yanayev believes that it is necessary to establish a good relationship with him now, otherwise Japan's plan to cooperate with the Soviet Union to develop the Far East may go to waste.

It is inconvenient for Yanayev to do this kind of thing himself, so Shevardnadze replaced Yanayev and instilled ecstasy soup to Keizo Obuchi.Of course, this exchange is a private and informal occasion, that is, Yanayev does not want to attract the attention of too many people.

Keizo Obuchi was a little surprised by Shevardnadze's visit.After all, it is very rare for external ministers to communicate in private.

Keizo Obuchi asked, "Minister Shevardnadze is here because of the oil pipeline?"

Shevardnadze shook his head, "Not exactly. The issue of oil pipeline laying is left to the delegation to solve. I want to discuss another matter with Minister Megumi Obuchi."

Keizo Obuchi couldn't figure out Shevardnadze's purpose, coughed lightly, and then asked, "What is the other thing? If it's a state visit, we should do it on a formal occasion."

"If it can be done on a formal occasion, we don't need to go to the hotel where you are staying." Shevardnadze tested Keizo Obuchi's attitude step by step, his tone was very cautious, "Because this is related to the partner issue of the large-scale opening project in the Far East, we think we should first seek the opinions of the other party."

The original expression on Keizo Obuchi's face is disappearing bit by bit, because the Far East development project mentioned by Shevardnadze is an issue that Japan has repeatedly considered before.The unexploited natural gas and oil of the Soviet Union in the Far East are things they dream of.

Once it is possible to open the oil pipeline project from the Soviet Union to Japan, compared with Japan's current import of liquefied gas by ship, the way of pipeline gas transmission will be much cheaper.If pipeline transportation can be realized, the cost of importing liquefied gas to Japan will be greatly reduced.Natural gas is one of Japan's power generation fuels, and Japan mainly adopts the method of importing natural gas after liquefaction.However, the liquefaction input method requires large-scale equipment and special ships, which will consume huge costs.Therefore, the import price of liquefied gas in Japan is more than 50% higher than that imported by pipelines in European countries.If Japan can lower the import price to the level of Europe, Japan will pay more than 1997 billion yen less based on the import volume in 5000.

This is undoubtedly good news for Japan.

Shevardnadze first made a suggestion, "In the future, if we consider the actual situation, we can build a natural gas pipeline from Sakhalin to Hokkaido, Japan. In this way, Japan can also save a large amount of imported natural gas payments. .”

The Japanese partner of the Soviet Union's natural gas industry, Nippon Gas Corporation, said that laying a pipeline from South Sakhalin to Hokkaido is feasible and economically justified.Nesterov, an expert in Soviet economics, believes that Japan is the world’s largest consumer of natural gas, and the price Japan pays to Gazprom is far higher than the price paid by European countries to the Soviet Union. Therefore, the Soviet Union certainly hopes to increase its gas supply to Japan, but It is more beneficial to the Soviet Union to increase the gas transmission capacity of the oil and gas field Sakhalin project and supply liquefied gas, which can increase the flexibility of Russia's sales.

Independent Soviet analyst Dmitry Lyukyagin said the project made sense from an economic point of view.Energy shortages in Japan are inevitable, requiring more imports of oil and natural gas.

"This is indeed a key issue." Keizo Obuchi sighed.Now Japan is facing a situation where Japan's economy is full of problems. If the situation can be opened up with the help of the Soviet Union's energy projects, then the Japanese government will be able to greatly reduce the burden.

Seeing that Keizo Obuchi became interested, Shevardnadze began to strike while the iron was hot, "In addition, in the various levels of negotiations between Japan and the Soviet Union, the issue of building natural pipelines was raised many times, but every time it appeared Political obstacles. Due to territorial disputes, the Japanese government does not allow investors to cooperate with the Soviet Union on expensive projects, such as the construction of oil pipelines. Japan is very close to Hasalin Island, and Sakhalin Island has rich Natural gas resources. If transported by pipeline, it is much cheaper than using liquefaction technology.”

When it came to political issues, Keizo Obuchi didn't understand what Shevardnadze wanted to express, "I don't understand what this sentence means."

"Abandon our political prejudices, put aside disputes, and jointly develop. If Japan is willing to join the Far East Development Plan and become a partner, then we are willing to provide Japan with the greatest benefits. This is why I privately The reason why you came to see Minister Obuchi Megumin."

After going around in circles, Shevardnadze finally got to the crux of the problem.He told Obuchi Keizo that he was here to need a partner, and Japan would be the Soviet Union's preferred target.

"So that's the case." Megumi Obuchi nodded. Although he is 63 years old, in terms of political knowledge, Megumi Obuchi may be far inferior to Shevardnadze, who is nearly 15 years younger than himself. Come far.

"So you want me to be able to get some wind from Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto?" Keizo Obuchi didn't make a statement, he was trying to test Shevardnadze's attitude.

"It's not to vent to Hashimoto Ryutaro, but to mention this project to Minister Megumi Obuchi." Shevardnadze whispered, "And now the Japanese government is trying its best to adjust the consumption tax, isn't it?"

Keizo Obuchi's eyelids finally twitched, he was no longer listless listening to Shevardnadze's answer, this was the first time he looked at a large number of young people in front of him.

His eyes were sly and witty.

"Since the end of the 1970s, consumption tax has been the most concerned issue in Japanese politics. In 1978, then Japanese Prime Minister Masahiro Ohira first proposed the idea of ​​"consumption tax". However, due to the defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party election, it had to be cancelled. In 1986, Nakasone Yasuhiro The prime minister changed his name to sales tax, and proposed this idea again, but it was unsuccessful. In 1988, Prime Minister Takeshita Akira realized the consumption tax idea, and it was implemented the following year.”

"I know that the recent financial situation of the Japanese government is not optimistic, but have you ever thought that the Japanese economy is now in a weak period, and if the consumption tax is adjusted, it may lead to a decline in consumption..."

Shevarnadze said that he would stop, even if he told Keizo Obuchi that there would be an Asian financial crisis next, the other party would not believe it.

"Believe me, Minister Shevardnadze." Keizo Obuchi said coldly, "We know the problems in Japan best, and we don't need your advice."

"Then please remember what I said today, Minister Megumi Obuchi. Maybe you will regret it in a few months." Shevardnadze said with a smile.

When Japan has nothing to do, it will come back to the Soviet Union, and the initiative for negotiations will be in Moscow.

Chapter 588 Japan's Economic Nightmare

"Minister Obuchi Megumi returned information from Moscow, saying that he was negotiating with the Russians in Moscow and mentioned too much joint development of the Far East project. Soviet Foreign Minister Shevardnadze tried to persuade Minister Obuchi Megumi to join the development of the Far East What do you think of the project, Minister Hiroshi Mitsuka."

As the Minister of Finance Hiroshi Mitsuka who served as Hashimoto's second cabinet, his answer made Hashimoto Ryutaro a little puzzled, "Wait, wait. The Soviet Union's Far East development project has only remained in words since it was announced. Elaboration, and no further practical operation."

Hiroshi Mitsuka pushed the tea in front of him to Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, and said to him, "The current Soviet Union is like this cup of tea. It looks very perfect, but in reality? Before you drink this cup of tea Before, I never knew what it was like inside. But..."

Hiroshi Mitsuka picked up the tea in the cup, brought it to his mouth and blew it lightly, and then said, "We will know the result after the other party drinks it. Whether the Far East Project is a scam or a real win-win project depends on the Soviet Union." The next move. The Japanese government is not being taken advantage of, and will not suffer this unreasonable loss."

"Does the Minister of Finance mean to wait and see what happens?" Hashimoto Ryutaro asked.

"Yes, wait and see. Because we don't know what step the Soviet Union's development project will take. When they officially announce the opening, it will be the best opportunity for Japan to join in." Hiroshi Mitsuka gave Ryutaro Hashimoto My advice is to wait and don't rush.He took out another document and handed it to Hashimoto Ryutaro, which was the real purpose of his visit this time.

"I hope that Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto will think about the increase in consumption tax. After all, this is related to our current cabinet." Hiroshi Mitsuka held the document and hesitated.This is the financial situation of the Japanese government in this quarter. The expansion of the fiscal deficit and the weakness of the Japanese economy made Ryutaro Hashimoto a little anxious.

Ryutaro Hashimoto sighed. Of course he knew that it is easy to cut taxes and difficult to raise taxes. "Increasing consumption tax is a helpless move, and it is difficult to fill the gap in the deficit. In fact, raising consumption tax is a helpless way to improve Japan's poor fiscal situation." Choice. The baby boom has passed, and Japan is gradually aging. The proportion of the elderly population over 65 is gradually increasing, and the burden of social security such as pension and medical care is becoming heavier. Japan's public debt is catching up with the level of GDP. For a long time , our government’s national debt mainly relies on national household savings to purchase and digest. However, the balance of Japanese household financial net assets is already approaching the scale of government debt. In other words, it is unwise for the government to rely on borrowing money from ordinary people to survive. The goal of balance of payments can only expand tax sources. Compared with major developed countries, Japan’s consumption tax rate is relatively low.”

Hiroshi Mitsuka retorted, "But the Prime Minister should not choose to increase taxes at this time, when the economy has recovered on a certain scale."

Japan must meet three conditions to achieve fiscal balance: first, to achieve a high level of economic growth; second, to significantly reduce fiscal expenditure; third, to increase the consumption tax rate to about 3%.However, under the real social and economic conditions in Japan, this is almost impossible to achieve.Therefore, it is almost impossible for Japan to make up for the predicament caused by the original economic bubble.

"In order to achieve high-speed economic growth, we can only gamble at the end." Ryutaro Hashimoto said, "China and the Soviet Union are the two markets, and this is Japan's last choice."

"So we still want to cooperate with the Soviet Union?" Hiroshi Mitsuka lowered his eyes. He hoped that Japan could wait a little longer, but the reality is that Ryutaro Hashimoto couldn't wait any longer.

"Yes, right after the oil pipeline problem is over," Hashimoto said.

While high-level Japanese officials were negotiating on development projects in the Far East, the Kremlin was also planning a new round of actions.Yanayev's two cards have already been played. One is to encourage Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to invest in the Far East.The second insurance card is to instill in Keizo Obuchi the illusion that the Soviet Union urgently needs to cooperate with Japan.In two months, Hashimoto Ryutaro will be relegated from the position of Prime Minister of Japan because of the consumption tax issue. When Keizo Obuchi takes over the mess of Hashimoto Ryutaro, he will realize what the Soviet Union calls cooperation. mean.Yanayev did not use any conspiracy this time, but used Japan's real problems openly to make the world economy bow to himself.