USSR 1991

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"Poor Poland." Ryzhkov, who had been silent all this time, sighed. Although Slyunikov's plan was insidious, it was indeed understandable in terms of national interests.The short-sightedness of allies and opponents is the best cover for Slyunikov's economic strike plan.

"If we pity Poland, who will pity the Soviet Union?" Slyunikov showed professional rationality, "A win-win situation is what everyone hopes for, but our opponents are destined not to let this happen, so this In the game, Poland can only be chosen as the victim, and it can be used as a bargaining chip with the Americans."

Yanayev interrupted the increasingly heated confrontation and asked, "Okay, stop complaining. International politics is not a child's game. In any case, the interests of the country must be considered first. About Poland , if you are lucky, Kwasniewski will learn a painful lesson. If you are not lucky, Poland will wait for an economic crisis. Comrade Slyunikov, give me a detailed report according to your ideas , I need to see this report the day after tomorrow, and Comrade Ryzhkov, the specific arrangements have to be handed over to you, the chairman of the Council of Ministers, this is the content of this meeting, is there anything else to add?"

Both shook their heads at the same time.

Yanayev breathed a sigh of relief and said, "Very well, then we will wait and see the good show."

Chapter 4 Interim Council of Ministers

While Moscow was busy planning a conspiracy against Poland, it had already begun preparations for an interim meeting of multilateral ministers from the five countries of Britain, the United States, Germany, France and Poland. The main content of the meeting was about Poland's application to join the WTO Of course, this is just a temporary meeting to test the tone. After reaching an agreement, Poland's WTO application will be completely passed in the Uruguay Round negotiations.

Anyway, the opinions of other countries are not very important, what is important is the attitude of the four capitalist powers.As long as they nod and nod, which blind country dares to stand up and say no?

This interim ministerial meeting was held in Warsaw, perhaps to sell Kwasniewski’s face specially. The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Clark, US Treasury Secretary Robert, and German Finance Minister Theodor Weigel attended the meeting And French Economy Minister Alphonse Daly, while Poland showed a reception that went beyond the specification, directly asking Polish Prime Minister Pawlak to negotiate with them.

Because this negotiation is related to the development of the Polish economy in the next few decades, Prime Minister Pawlak is much more serious than ever before. Only a few people were in the spacious international conference room. The next is almost always a country's senior leadership.

U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Robert said, “Regarding Poland’s accession to the World Trade Organization, the representatives of the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany and France put forward the following requirements. Poland must join the World Trade Organization as a developed country and have a two-year trade protection period. Once the period of trade protection is over, Poland will have to perform its duties in accordance with the regulations of the World Trade Organization. The following is the content of the regulations.”

"First of all, Poland must cut tariffs. Cut tariffs across the board, reducing the average tax rate to 17%. The tax on agricultural products will be reduced to 5% within 15 years, and Poland's subsidies for all export commodities will be cancelled. The second is to open the agricultural product market. For wheat, corn, Tariff ratio quota system was implemented for rice and cotton to open up the market, gradually canceling the trade of important agricultural products controlled by the state. The third point is that the special clause to control the surge of Polish exports to the United States after the cancellation of the quota is valid for 12 years, and Poland is prohibited from exporting The terms of dumping by other countries are valid for 15 years."

"Fourth, open up the retail market. Open up more distribution rights and after-sales services to foreign companies. Fifth, open up professional services. Professional services that are open to foreign companies include legal, accounting, medical care, etc. Sixth, open up the auto industry. The tariff rate will be reduced in stages from the current 80-100% every year until 1999% in 25, allowing American institutions to provide car loans. Seventh, open up the telecommunications industry. Open the telecommunications market to foreign capital and allow foreign businessmen to own in the field of electronic services 49% equity, which will increase to 2% after 50 years; foreign investors can fully invest in the market. Eighth, open the banking industry. After joining the WTO, foreign banks can handle currency business for Polish companies within 2 years, and after 5 years after joining the world trade must Fully open. Ninth, open up the securities industry, allowing foreign-funded financial companies to hold 33% of the shares in fund management companies. In 2000, Poland must open up all walks of life and allow foreign capital to enter all industries in Poland, including important industries directly controlled by the Polish government .”

Every time the United States reads a treaty, Pawlak's brows are frowned. Prime Minister Pawlak knows very well that if he agrees to the request made by the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, after the two-year trade protection period passes, all walks of life in Poland will be affected by foreign investment. Fatal blow, this kind of blow is undoubtedly fatal to Polish local enterprises.

The trade barriers set up every time are to protect Poland's fledgling fragile economy, but the two-year period is too short for Poland to achieve any protective effect at all.

Prime Minister Pawlak, who is also the Minister of Economy, naturally does not want to make Poland suffer. He protested against the request made by the US Secretary of the Treasury. The protection period is too short, and Poland must join the World Trade Organization as a developing country.”

"Rejected." The British Chancellor of the Exchequer denied Pavlak's request without even thinking about it. Two years is too long for Britain. Looting wealth, instead of acting like an aristocrat, intriguing at the negotiating table.

But now the United States is more calm and continues to listen to them.

"Poland was one of the rich socialist countries during the Soviet period. We cannot choose to classify you from a developed country to a developing country because you changed the country's system. This is unfair to other member states. "

Pavlak nodded, spread his hands and said, "If this is the case, then Poland also has something to say. Before agreeing to join the World Trade Organization, the Soviet Union approached Poland to discuss the establishment of an economic mutual aid association to deepen the economic and trade between the two countries. So now is Poland eligible to join the WTO as a developing country?"

Pawlak's words made the four giants of the economy look at each other in dismay. How could there be such intelligence?

Now Poland has two options, either to join the WTO, or to establish a separate economic cooperation system with the Soviet Union, which is not a good thing for Western countries.However, Minister Robert and others will definitely not agree to Poland's 15-year WTO protection period, which is tantamount to digging a hole and jumping down.

"It is impossible for us to agree to a 15-year trade protection period, which does not comply with the regulations of the World Trade Organization." The French Minister of Economy even gave up his mask, showing a hideous face, and vetoed the contents of the World Trade Agreement in black and white.

"Poland cannot join the WTO as a developing country. As a rapidly growing emerging economy, Poland has the obligation to take on more responsibilities, so we will not grant your request. Rather delay or veto Poland's request to join the WTO. Daly said through gritted teeth.

Pavlack looked at the French Minister of Economy with a smile on his face, with a sense of déjà vu that you can do nothing to me if I just do this.The important thing is that Pavlak knows that if he agrees to the French's request, then Poland may really have a bad life.

Pavlak can't afford to take the whole of Poland for a little profit, but if he can win a longer period of trade protection, then this is an interesting venture capital investment for Poland.Maybe you can make a lot of money in investment.

Negotiations fell into a stalemate for a while, and no one knew what would happen next. The British Chancellor of the Exchequer, who was a European shit stick, stepped forward to ease the relationship between the two parties.

"Since this is the case, let's announce that we will suspend the negotiations for a period of time to give both parties a little more time to think about it."

When the negotiations were interrupted, the finance ministers of the four countries did not have a good face. Obviously they did not know that the Soviet Union would actually intervene in Poland's issues, not to mention the fact that the establishment of the Economic Commission was true or false, but Poland can indeed Use this news to blackmail four countries.

"Our policy must be re-formulated. If Poland is biased towards the Soviet Union, then the strategies we have formulated before will be invalid." When talking about strategies, Minister of Finance Robert raised his head and glanced at the other three people. All gloomy and terrible.Because this strategy is what everyone has in mind.

"Damn Yanayev." Clark cursed, as if something he was supposed to get was suddenly hacked.

"Complaining won't solve anything, Minister Clark," said German Finance Minister Weigel, who has been silent. "Now we have to bargain over two years and within 15 years. Of course, everyone hopes that the deadline is as low as possible." , After all, everyone knows what is going on with everyone."

The French Minister of Economy who had been thinking with his chin raised his head at this time, looked around at the gloomy crowd, and gave his opinion, "If we can't make a fuss about the time limit, then we can impose a harsher treaty on Poland, so that The other side comes to surrender. What Poland lacks now is the right to choose, not the right to veto."

Daly's words made everyone's eyes shine, and they raised their heads and began to think about the feasibility of this plan.

"If this is the case, then we can give Poland several options to choose from. I hope that Prime Minister Pawlak will not have difficulty choosing."

Chapter 4 Zero Nine Final Trade Agreement

After a short few days of rest, the financial leaders of the four countries formulated corresponding supporting plans for Pawlak. The first is to increase the conditions of trade restrictions. In terms of conditions, Poland has adopted an extreme reduction of more than 90.00% of all commodity economic tariffs to achieve real trade liberalization.

The second set of plans is to shorten the period of trade protection in Poland. After heated discussions among the finance ministers of the four countries, they agreed to use three years as the period of trade protection in Poland, with the original conditions unchanged.In the eyes of others, these so-called world trade agreement schemes are just which one is worse.

After providing Pavlak with two proposals, U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert also expressed the hope that this would be the last time to bargain. If Poland did not know how to use economic trade with the Soviet Union as an excuse, the U.S. would take decisive retaliatory measures.To put it in a more general way, you play according to our rules and use trade wars to cripple your economy every minute.Moreover, Poland cannot withdraw from the WTO, otherwise the four countries will launch a currency war against Poland. In short, Poland's ending is nothing more than a decent or dishonorable death.

The financial war is a tactic that hurts the enemy by one thousand and self-defeating eight hundred, and in the end may be taken advantage of by others. The financial giants on Wall Street do not agree to participate, but they will resort to this tactic when they have to. If the sword takes a slant, the end result is nothing more than a large number of bank failures or some investment banks making a lot of money.

The United States has put forward economic threats in a disguised form, and Pawlak, who has benefited, dare not continue to talk about conditions. Originally, he used retreat as an attack and wanted to obtain a further 15-year trade protection period, but the United States is about to tear itself apart. Pavlak did not dare to continue to threaten Poland. Pavlak was blind, but he was not stupid enough to have the courage to fight against the four economic powers.

So under similar circumstances, Poland chose the second plan. Compared with the harsh conditions of the previous two years, Poland is confident that it can adapt to the rules of the World Trade Organization as soon as possible within three years and complete the complete transformation of the market economy.

January 1996, 1 was originally Christmas in Russia. On this lively day, people cheered and celebrated. They didn't know that a silent contest was slowly coming to an end.Polish President Kwasniewski on the TV is speaking at a press conference. He declares that Poland's entry into the World Trade Organization will be a change that will affect the world, and Poland will let everyone in the next few years. Witness a whole new Poland.

If you observe carefully enough, you will find that apart from the happy smile of the President of Poland, the representatives of other countries seem a little absent-minded, indicating that they do not regard Poland's accession to the WTO as a very important matter. Most people think of Poland as a delicious little lamb waiting to be roasted whole.

"Before I thought that Kwasniewski was still a visionary guy. I didn't expect that he didn't have much vision like Walesa before. Others just let him join the WTO because they regarded Poland as a lamb that has been waiting to be slaughtered. In this way, Poland will only have a bright future in the next few years." Yanayev shook his head regretfully, in his heart, Poland had already been sentenced to death.

Seeing this, Yanayev pressed the switch of the remote control, the picture on the TV stopped completely, and the screen returned to darkness.Yanayev dropped the remote control, but couldn't calm down for a long time.The room seemed a little calm, only the sound of heavy breathing and the echoing sound of the clock accompanied him.

The excitement of Christmas did not ease Yanayev's depression by half. What he worried about was that the World Trade Organization began to intervene in Eastern Europe, which meant that the possibility of the Soviet Union regaining its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe was reduced.

The deep-rooted concept of military hegemony controlling the world by successive leaders led to decades of abnormal development of the Soviet economy. Even though Yanayev used various means to try to save the Soviet economy, the economy often could not keep up with the strategic needs of the Soviet Union. One point makes him very anxious, or an anxiety that is more than enough but not enough.

Anxiety is anxiety, but the road is still going step by step.What Yanayev has to do is to speed up the pace of the Soviet Union's economic development, or throw banana peels on the road to stop the opponent from catching up. But in the final analysis, if his own economic strength is not enough, he really has to deal with the combined super economy of NATO and the United States. body, the Soviet Union is difficult to parry.

The plan for the Eastern Europe-Asia-Pacific economic axis has been brewing in Yanayev's mind for a long time, but he has never taken a tentative step.This idea is the same as that of the Asia-Pacific Cooperation Organization, but those who take the lead must pay a corresponding heavy price.Faced with this kind of investment whose return is not necessarily proportional to the effort, Yanayev appears very cautious.

He now has a document on his application for joining the Asia-Pacific Cooperation Organization. Although in the original historical timeline, Russia should have been a member of the Asia-Pacific Cooperation Organization at this time, but after the timeline changed, it just tried to open the market The economic Soviet Union also wanted to join the game of trade globalization.

However, other countries' fear of the Soviet Union and the United States' instigation behind the scenes prevented the Asia-Pacific Cooperation from approving the Soviet Union's application to join the game circle.Although China and other Asia-Pacific countries strongly demanded the approval of the Soviet Union's application to join the Asia-Pacific Cooperation Organization, the voices of this part have not yet moved the determination of the Ministerial Council.

Yanayev has actually thought about it. If it really doesn’t work, he can still win over China to establish his own small circle. Economically, it is a Moscow-Beijing joint organization. Politically, it is to wait until 2001 to create Shanghai. cooperative organization.When the strength of the southern neighbor reaches one of the three major economies, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will justifiably become a "Little Warsaw Pact Organization".At that time, the war on terrorism will be the goal, and military cooperation between countries will be strengthened, which will be no different from NATO's military integration, except that there will be a legitimate banner of anti-terrorism.

"Let's take it one step at a time. After all, the Soviet Union still has a long way to go after opening up the market. Next year, the five-nation meeting mechanism in Shanghai will hold the initial negotiations. This is also the first attempt of cooperation between the Soviet Union and China." Asia Nayev closed the report. He no longer wanted to try to squeeze into any economic circle, because the Soviet Union did not like to be a follower of the rules, but a creator of the rules.Just like challenging the Bretton Woods system, the Soviet Union's road to revival will never stop.

"A country full of ambitions will not condescend to be under the butcher knife of Europe and the United States. On the contrary, it will unite all forces that can be united to deal with its enemies. On this point, I think far away in Beijing that can memorize "Gettysburg" "Speech" people don't want to be someone else's follower for the rest of their lives. A person in power who is about to change China and the world is carrying out market economic reforms steadily. foundation, will create an equally powerful red empire in more than ten years."

Yanayev can only endure temporarily. After all, it will be Poland's fate to die without strength. If the Soviet Union and China really gather together to create a new international economic organization, they will immediately become the target of siege by other capitalist powers.So the road has to be walked step by step. Although it is long, there will always be a day when we reach the end.

Yanayev stood up, and the security team of the Ninth Bureau at the door was already waiting for his arrival. He was going to the Kremlin to hold a new round of Politburo meetings.

Regarding the future development, he has already planned that in the next ten years, the Soviet Union will be revived again, and will return the humiliation and anger it has suffered to the free camp.

Tremble before the red flag of the hammer and sickle, capitalists.

One day our red flag will cross the Bering Strait from St. Johns to the Far East, and the October Revolution will sing again throughout the world.